Australia Property investment

就算取消负扣税,房价依然不会跌,更不会大跌。
有些泡沫过高的楼花会有价格调整,但是不会比周边二手房价格更便宜,如果新楼开盘售价比周边二手房更便宜,这才是房价会跌的信号。

以下只讨论投资房,自住房无论涨跌都对市场没影响。

1-房产尤其是二手房价格不像股票价格会被大财团大机构控制,房产是分散在民间的资本,房东拥有房产定价权。

2-投资的房产,只要租金能大致相当贷款利息,房东便可长期持有,不可能会低于购入价抛售。

3-即使空租了,只要房东依然有其他收入来支持贷款利息,房东依然不会低价抛售。

4-如果持有多套投资房,都出租不掉,也没有其他资金来源,必须卖房,房东最惨也就是原价卖出。

5-如果无法原价卖出,房东会选择违约让银行收走。(100万的房子贷款80万,最后60万卖掉,却还欠银行20万,不如把房子还给银行好了)

6-银行贷款要给房屋估价,就是为了防止第5条的情况发生,离谱的房价银行是拒绝贷款的,只要银行能贷款给你,就说明银行对房市依然有信心。

【何时房价会跌】

1-银行收紧投资房贷款,投资房租金不再计入你的还款能力,不再做refinance.

2-租房市场惨淡,大量投资房租不出去,hold不住的房东会贱卖或还给银行,银行会拿出大量违约房产到市场上拍卖。

3-大量房屋出现在市场上,买家可以随意砍价随意挑选货比三家,中介牛皮糖一样把买家当上帝时。

4-买家越来越少,房东降价还是卖不出去,根本没人想来抄底,因为失业率大增,人们纷纷逃离这个城市,没有工作机会要买房干嘛,就像西澳珀斯,曾今的百万豪宅现在打对折,但是你会去买吗,几十万去鬼城买个豪宅,光长草不涨价,根本没人租。

5-公司大量倒闭,银行保险公司倒闭,人员流失严重,成为罪恶之地,像底特律那样,house不要钱,谁占了就是谁的,你去底特律吗?

【房价只会短期调整泡沫】
人人持币观望,希望跌价马上就捡个漏,这种市场情况怎么可能大跌呢。政府干预根本没用,天朝政府如此权力集中,限购加房产税却依然打压不下房价,何况澳洲政府,取消负扣税算根鸡毛啊。

当房价开始暴跌时,就是社会崩溃的时候,房价越是暴跌越没人买,如果100万跌到80万你买吗,万一买了之后跌到60万呢?房子只买涨不买跌,有小部分房 东特殊原因降价给你捡个漏,能hold住的不差钱的干嘛跌价给你捡漏,今年涨势不好就hold到明年卖,或后年卖,总之等下波行情再卖。

所以现在不要去猜房价涨跌,要分析金融,就业状况,社会状况,政局变化,如果经济持续低迷恶化,失业率不断上升,在这样一个地方连饭都吃不饱了,房价跌了又有何意义呢。

悉尼现在情况是受澳洲全国影响,经济相对低迷,但是有些领域混的好的依然年薪十多万,看看周围的朋友是否都面临裁员失业,而且政府很多政策出台都是在努力挽救经济颓势,想尽快逆转,让澳洲走出困境,社会还没绝望,房产自然有信心。

Belowed is the artile translated by Google Translater

Even cancel the negative tax, prices still will not fall, but will not collapse.
Some foam excessively high price adjustment will be uncompleted, but will not be cheaper than the surrounding second-hand house prices, if the opening price of the new building is cheaper than the surrounding second homes, this is a signal that prices will fall.

The following discussion only investment house, regardless of the ups and downs have no effect on the housing market since.

1- real estate, especially second-hand housing prices, unlike the stock price will be controlled by large consortia large organizations, real estate is dispersed in private capital, the landlord owns the property pricing.

2- real estate investment, as long as the rent can be roughly the loan interest, the landlord can be long-term holders, can not be lower than the purchase price to sell.

3- Even empty rent, as long as the landlord still have other income to support the loan interest, the landlord still does not sell cheap.

4- If you hold multiple sets of investment property, rent can not afford to have, there is no other source of funds, must sell, which is the worst landlord sold the original price.

5- If you can not sell the original price, the landlord may choose to let the bank take away breach. (1 million house loan 800 000, 600 000 and finally sold, still owe the bank 200 000, as well the house back to the bank)

6- to give the house a bank loan valuation, is to prevent the occurrence of article 5, outrageous prices banks are refusing loans, as long as the bank can lend to you, it means the bank on the housing market still has confidence.

[When house prices will fall]

1- investment banks to tighten housing loans, investment house rent is no longer included in your repayment ability, do not refinance.

2- rental market is bleak, the rent does not go out a lot of investment, hold the landlord could not be sold at or returned to the bank, the bank will come up with a large number of defaults on real estate market auction.

3- large number of houses on the market, buyers are free to choose to bargain shop around, intermediaries like obstinacy when the buyer when God.

4- fewer buyers, landlords or sell price, no one wanted to buy the dips, because the unemployment rate surge, people have fled the city, why not have jobs to buy a house, like Perth, Western Australia, has Today million mansion now playing on the break, but you will buy it, hundreds of thousands to buy a mansion ghost town, light long grass prices, no one to rent.

5- company going bankrupt, banks insurance company closures, staff turnover serious, become Sodom, like Detroit did, house not money, who accounted for is who you go to Detroit it?

[Foam] prices only short-term adjustment
Everyone hold out hope that the decline in value immediately pick up a leak, how this market could crash it. Government intervention useless, heavenly government so the concentration of power, plus the purchase of real estate tax is still weighed less than the price, not to mention the Australian government, the abolition of negative gearing count root feather ah.

When housing prices began to fall, is the social collapse, when prices plummeted more will buy more, if one million fell 800,000 you buy it, and then fell to 600 000 to buy a case of it? House only buy or not to buy, there is a small part of the landlord to give you a specific reason prices pick up a leak, can hold live Why not bad money to give you Jianlou depreciation, gains this year to sell well on hold until next year, or the year after sell short wait for the next wave of market and then sell.

So now do not guess prices up or down, to analyze the financial, employment status, social status, political changes, if the deterioration of the economic downturn, rising unemployment, in such a place even have enough to eat, and prices fell another what significance does it.

Sydney, Australia, the country is now the case is affected by the relative economic slump, but some areas still good mix of tens of thousands of annual salary, look around friends are unemployed are facing layoffs, and many government policies are trying to save the economy in decline, want to reverse as soon as possible, so that the Australian out of the woods, the community did not despair, real estate naturally confident.

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