hey everybody rob Bauer here and today

we are talking about what might be the

next big thing for Tesla in China we’ve

also got some interesting news on Tesla

and how they utilize navigation and

mapping data possibly some major battery

news a report on Tesla solar roof and

more not too much going on with the

stock again today Tesla tracking with

the NASDAQ both up about seven tenths of

a percent Tesla closing at 195.28

quickly looking ahead to tomorrow we

will get the personal consumption

expenditures report or pce report in the

morning that’ll be before Market open

but reminder that is for February so the

date at this point a little bit old this

would be before everything happened with

the banks but still will be watched

closely and then of course tomorrow is

the last day of the quarter so I’ll go

through my delivery and production

expectations and then we’ll head into

the weekend most likely expecting that

report late in the morning on Sunday

all right let’s get right into some

possibly very exciting news for Tesla in

China I think Tesla Chan on Twitter

spotting this first on LinkedIn Tesla

has posted a job opening for an

engineering program manager for energy

storage in Shanghai the description says

that Tesla’s Energy Engineering Group is

looking for a highly motivated

individual to program manage new design

engineering projects for the mega pack

program so of course we know about the

mega Factory and Lathrop scaling up to

40 gigawatt hours per year of energy

storage products it looks like Tesla may

have similar maybe even more ambitious

plans for the production of energy

storage products in China there have

been rumors for a while now about Tesla

maybe making a mega Factory there and

although this wouldn’t quite be

confirmation of that it definitely would

be the strongest tent that we have had

so far thinking about a possible Mega

Factory in Shanghai and then putting

that together with a couple of pieces of

Tesla history that we have which would

be one the ramp up that we have seen on

the mega Factory in Lathrop happening

quite quickly and then two the history

of Giga Shanghai and how quickly that

ramp happened for automotive those

things things make it extremely exciting

to think about how quickly Tesla could

possibly ramp up energy storage

production in China we’ve already seen

really great growth for Tesla energy 65

compound annual growth rate since 2016.

this is starting to form a really nice

beginning of an s-curve but as Tesla

said at an investor day just the

beginning that growth hardly looks like

anything at all compared to where Tesla

is planning on going and planning on

going pretty quickly and as we have

talked about the beautiful thing here

with Tesla energy is that so much of the

operational costs for this business are

covered by Tesla’s auto business

obviously there are going to be some

incremental operating expenses but a lot

of that girl’s profit then from Tesla

energy doesn’t even need to be that good

of gross margin a lot of that can flow

down to the bottom line so hopefully

with this job posting we’re not too far

off from hearing more about Tesla’s

official plans for their next Mega

Factory or maybe their next couple

there’s also a rumor going around Chris

John on Twitter posting about this last

night and I’ve seen this in a couple of

places probably not related but a rumor

that Elon will be visiting China next

weekend so we’ll keep an eye on that see

if anything comes of that

all right next up we’ve got a pretty big

report from Bloomberg they are reporting

on Tesla and catl being in discussions

about building a possible battery

Factory in the United States together

Bloomberg says that in recent days Tesla

has been having discussions with the

White House about this possibility and

seeking Clarity on the implications from

the inflation reduction act on a project

like this whether that’s EV credits or

battery production credits Bloomberg

says that Tesla is hoping to pursue a

similar setup to what we had talked

about between Ford and catl back in

February that was where Ford was going

to invest three and a half billion

dollars to build a lithium iron

phosphate battery Factory in Michigan

leveraging catl for their knowledge and

Technology while the factory would still

be wholly owned by Ford so that is

slated for initial production in 2026

with a plan capacity of about 35

gigawatt hours per year so from

Bloomberg’s reporting Tesla would be

pursuing a similar setup where it would

be wholly owned by Tesla licensing

technology from catl presumably for

lithium iron phosphate or some of the

newer similar technology that catl’s

been working on and although location is

not finalized it sounds like they are

considering Texas so that’s about all we

know at this point in time but obviously

Tesla could be using these batteries for

energy storage stuff that we had just

talked about certainly Vehicles as well

and Tesla has been clear that although

they are working on their own battery

production with 4680s they want to

continue to leverage battery supply from

these suppliers sounds like this would

be a little bit of a hybrid of both not

too dissimilar from the setup with

Panasonic at Giga Nevada

hopefully Tesla gets some of the clarity

that they’re looking for from the White

House and can quickly move forward on

this we’re still waiting on those

guidelines that are supposed to happen

before the end of March which we are

quickly approaching all right next up

we’ve got some pretty interesting

information from Greenlee only on

Twitter today about how Tesla is using

some of their Fleet and data collection

capabilities to improve things like

navigation and mapping so green was

taking a look at how Tesla handles

alternative routing in the navigation

system and it’s not quite as simple as

Tesla just grabbing a suggestion from

Google Maps they might take Google Maps

information and then they layer on Tesla

Maps information to make some of those

decisions but that’s not all they’re

doing the Tesla vehicles are also asking

the Tesla Maps database according to

Green for things like what parking lot

outlines are at certain locations what

else needs to be known for the route

that the Tesla is going to navigate

which can include things like stop sign

locations crosswalk information lane

information things that Tesla can

probably get some of from Google Maps

but when Tesla’s got this massive Fleet

that is driving around constantly they

should be able to build a much better

database and it does seem like that is

something that Tesla is doing which I’m

thrilled to see I’ve always kind of

wondered why Tesla hasn’t been doing

this but it looks like they have you

don’t want to become reliant on maps but

they can definitely give you information

that makes solving this incredibly

challenging problem a little bit easier

and probably a little bit safer as well

I think Tesla historically has kind of

confused people talking negatively

towards HD Maps it’s not exactly what

we’re talking about here this would be

more of kind of metadata but I think

over time as this gets more and more

robust probably approaches more into

that type of territory and as we had

already talked about with Hardware 4

seemingly including a much more precise

and robust GPS system this type of stuff

should only get better over time one of

the really cool things about this is

that green says this seems to be

updating in nearly real time one of the

elements there is speed so very much a

Waze like system where Tesla can get

really great traffic flow information

from the fleet which obviously improves

naturally as the fleet grows so some

pretty cool stuff here green shared a

couple of photos of that code showing

that it is coming from Tesla Telemetry

data and right now Tesla probably just

kind of scratching the surface of the

types of things that this can eventually

lead to

all right next up we’ve got a report on

the Tesla solar roof from CNBC today

they are citing research from wood

McKenzie that says that Tesla has only

installed 3 000 solar Roof Systems in

the US since launching the technology

where would McKenzie got this

information from and why they and CNBC

are so confident that it’s correct I’m

not sure but Tesla solar on Twitter

today replying to the article and saying

that this is incorrect by a large margin

unfortunately that was about 12 hours

after the Articles published so this is

already spread a long ways but hopefully

that interjection from Tesla implies a

little bit higher of a number for solar

roof installations historically of

course this article from CNBC just so

happened to be published the day after a

shareholder lawsuit against Tesla for

the SolarCity acquisition gave opening

arguments in pursuit of an appeal for a

previous ruling that had gone against

the lawsuit all right moving on from

that something a little bit fun here

from Tesla today they’ve got a new

product that has launched in Europe it

is gigabeer we heard about this when

Tesla opened gigafactory Berlin this is

a five percent ABV pilsner from Tesla in

a cyber truck inspired package and Tesla

says Tesla gigabeer is designed to

emulate the form of cyber truck while

honoring the 500-year tradition of

German Orion Heights Cabot beer making

Tesla says this is a limited edition

pilsner brewed in Berlin with our

exclusive strain of cyber Hops and notes

of citrus Bergamot and sweet fruit each

bottle features a seamless gloss black

sleeve with a glow-in-the-dark Giga

Watermark this is 89 Euros for a pack of

three so it’s not the cheapest beer

you’re ever gonna buy might be the most

expensive and unfortunately for many of

us at this time it does seem to only be

available in Europe

all right last couple of things for

today this Gap has been closing for a

long time but Elon today officially

becoming the most followed person on

Twitter with 133.1 million followers

moving just past Barack Obama at 133

million so congratulations to Elon for

that and since we didn’t talk about

anything else from Elon on Twitter today

now’s probably a good time to do that he

did tweet out that Giga Mexico will have

the lowest water usage per car of any

auto Factory in the world probably no

surprise to those of us that have

followed the company closely all right

lastly then we’ve got a couple of

pricing updates from Ford and from

Porsche Ford has issued another round of

price increases on the Ford F-150

Lightning pro model this is what is

supposed to be the sort of commercial or

work truck that originally started right

around forty thousand dollars but has

now had four significant rounds of price

increases with the most recent one

Happening Now bringing the price from

just under 58 000 up by four thousand

dollars to just under sixty two thousand

dollars now so it’s a pretty sharp

difference in a pretty short period of

time obviously Tesla has faced some

criticism about similar things over the

years and we’ll see what happens with

cyber truck but given the financials

that we have seen from Ford it’s much

harder to see how this was ever a

realistic Target for them than what

we’ve obviously seen transpire in the

financials for Tesla and then also

bucking the price cutting Trends is the

Porsche ticon they have according to the

recap here from Drive Tesla Canada

increased prices on what I believe is

all trims of the ticon by about four to

five percent in the US and Canada for

the 2024 model year so not the most

sensitive category obviously the Porsche

brand very much at play but that does

make the comparison with a Model S that

much more difficult alright that is

where we’ll wrap it up for today then as

always thank you for listening make sure

you’re subscribed and sign up for

notifications you can also find me on

Twitter at teslapodcast and I’ll see you

tomorrow for the Friday March 31st

episode of Tesla daily thank you

[Music]

thank you

Advertisement

为什么我们不需要2%的通货膨胀率目标,为什么消费并不促进经济发展

“通货膨胀是政府从我们身上隐形收税的卑鄙手段,政府发行的货币是政府最牛逼的收割韭菜工具。” –鲁迅

但大部分人都相信政府的那套烂说辞,认为通货膨胀是对整个经济有利的。正如很多人相信社会主义才是经济发展的王道。

通货膨胀越高=越社会主义化=越让国家操控经济资源

如果你还停留在社会主义好的阶段,可能你没有体会过60年代的大饥荒。不了解饿死人的总数量比中国二战死的人还多,谁是几千万人的的刽子手,自然灾害?也不曾去想为什么二战后,世界经济疯狂恢复,连战败国日本德国都迅猛发展,但胜利国中国却始终停滞不前。可能你也没搞明白是什么让90年代的深圳从一个小渔村变成了中国的硅谷,引领之后经济真正的改革开放。可能你一直在笑朝鲜,但你不知如果没有邓小平,现在中国就是更大的朝鲜。

为什么通货膨胀=社会主义化

什么是社会主义?简单地说就是国家操控经济的运作,国家来分配社会资源。

和黄金解钩后,货币是每个国家最NB的经济工具。国家可以自由调控你手里钱的价值。他想让你的存款升值的时候,他会升息。他想拿走你存款价值的时候,没错,只用自己多印点钱。而印钱,其实是最早通货膨胀的定义。通货膨胀,让你手中的货币贬值。那么贬值的“值”去哪了?不可能凭空消失吧。没错,去了国家。然后国家再根据他的需要,决定这些多的“值”流向哪。所以通货膨胀=税。通货膨胀越高,税越高,越社会主义化。

拿最近澳洲猛发补助来说。你觉得对经济是好还是不好?如果你觉得好,我要问你一个问题,为什么不能一直发?发太多就不好了?那么发多少合适呢?你是不是觉得政府能够算出来。那他们是怎么计算的?你根本说不清楚,也没人能说清楚,因为发钱促进经济其实就是扯淡。

其实发钱对于经济来说是极差的。

就拿我亲身例子来说,我本身因为练拳身体经常到处痛,需要去按摩店按摩。但疫情开始后我不练了,也不需要按摩了。大部分人也因为收入下降想把钱留在吃喝住这些基本需求上面。按道理按摩店的数量因为需求减少会变少,很多应该倒闭。但是政府说,你们别倒,我给你们发钱。这些流通的钱造成了通货膨胀,物价上涨。我是做餐饮的,进货价一直涨,我卖出的价格也得上涨。作为消费者来说,他们的工资下降,但物价却上涨。我本来的存款可以买两个馒头,但现在同样的钱只能买一个了。另一个馒头去哪了?另一个馒头被政府拿走发给按摩店去了。但其实根本没人去按摩店。按摩店本该死,却活了,一些餐馆本该活,却死了。

发钱造成严重的资源浪费。

澳洲发了这么久的钱,股票房价咔咔咔的涨。消费却越来越贵。假设没有发钱,是,很多行业会倒闭,失业率会暂时的暴增。但这才一个经济所需要的,而不是一个虚假的繁荣。失业的按摩店店员阿发,阿财,会跑去找餐馆的工作。阿广,小黄会去工厂上班。人工费用开始下降,食品物价也随之降低。但事实是每人都拿补助,没人愿意上班,雇主只能提高人工工资,最终也反映在了消费者身上。

我们已经习惯了不断上涨的物价,但其实过去的150年的美国,从18世纪末,到1913年,美国的物价一直在稳定下降。但就是在这个阶段里,美国经历了人类历史上经济增长最快的几个阶段。这种现象的原因是因为生产力随着科技不断进步而提高。如果货币供应稳定,就像美联储成立前的美国那样。生产力的提高会促使价格下降。工业革命让生产力大幅提高,让普通的工薪家庭也能买的起装饰家居,量身定做的衣服,乘车费甚至汽车,而这些以前只有富人才消费得起。你10年前存的钱难道你不希望10年后他能买更多的东西吗?这不是显而易见的道理吗。我们被政府告知如果价格下降就会出现通货紧缩,人们会停止购物,等更低的价格,这样经济就会停摆,工人会开始失业,我们会回到经济的黑暗时代。 这你也信吗?IPHONE10几年前卖1000澳元,现在可能只要500. 产品价格不断下降,但人们并没有因为价格不断下降而停止购买苹果产品。苹果公司的员工也越来越多,拿着越来越多的薪水。 产品价格的下跌不能停止苹果公司对新产品的研究,促使着他们不断发展。

经济的好与坏与消费无关,而是在于生产力的提高。总有人说消费能增加需求,促进经济发展。钱的流动我们可以把他看做成资源的自由分配。总资源是有限的。馅饼不像政府的钱,不是天上掉下来的。当一个行业的需求增加,会有更多的资源流入这个行业,这个行业的确会得到发展。但别的行业事必也会衰落。总体经济并不是说消费了就一定增长。而关键在于这些交换后资源是不是能最有效的提高生产力。只有生产力提高了,物品价格下降了,人消费才会增加。发展与高消费的确经常同时进行,但搞反的是,发展是消费增加的原因,而并不是消费增加的结果。

如果政府知道通货膨胀不好,为什么非要搞个通货膨胀,然后非要说这样好?

理解这个问题非常简单。通货膨胀造成货币贬值,也就是相当于债务减少,非常有利于欠债的人,因为他实际还款变少了,非常不利于存款多的人,因为自己钱价值变少。通货紧缩造成货币升值,相当于债务增加了,相反有利于存款很多的人,很不利与欠债多的人。美国国债不断刷新历史新高,是世界最大的债务国。但政府却始终保持着高消费的预算,财政收入远远不及支出。现在又到了不提高债务上限政府就要倒闭的处境。钱不够哪来?印更多的钱。又可以还债,又可以降低欠下债务的实际价值。何乐而不为?但政府又不能把真相明目张胆的说出来。假设所有人都知道美国不会实质加息,那事必会引起投资者抛售美元,引起国债收益率爆升,带来更大的通货膨胀。为了不让这只灰犀牛在自己的任期发生。美股总统们像击鼓传花一样把这只灰犀牛不断传给下一任。这也是目前通货膨胀率创历史新高,但仍不加息的原因。

反垄断就是瞎胡闹

反垄断的目的是鼓励竞争,但竞争最终的目的就是减少竞争。反垄断最后得到的结果是没有鼓励竞争。竞争者的宿命就是永远都有潜在竞争者。—鲁迅

最近,阿里巴巴115亿罚单,滴滴下架,虎牙收购斗鱼被拒,谷歌脸书一次又一次反垄断起诉。全世界都加入了对大型科技公司反垄断的浪潮。港股科技股萎靡不振。反垄断法的目的是控制资本的无限扩大。当一个公司市场份额不断变大,反垄断机构开始担心,会不会对市场经济,自由竞争,消费者利益构成挑战。假设有多个竞争者,那么他们会因为竞争而压低产品价格,带给消费者利益。假设市场被一个公司垄断,那么这个公司就可以疯狂抬高价格,损害消费者利益,违背自由经济原则。反垄断法也成为了商业的宪法,任何有垄断倾向的并购,都会遭到反垄断部门的诉讼。

创立于1985年的美国DVD租碟公司Blockbuster红极一时,成为了美国最大的影响租借公司。2005年,Blockbuster想要收购当时市场份额排名第三的好莱坞影片租借公司。但美国反垄断部门阻止了这项收购,认为这个收购会增强Blockbuster的垄断地位,不利于竞争。但他们不知道的是网络直播公司奈飞NETFLIX的迅速崛起,给Blockbuster造成严重的威胁。反垄断部门干涉了Blockbuster的正常资金的投资和运营,干涉了自由市场。结局是这个所谓的垄断公司在未来几年果不其然江河日下,直到倒闭。反垄断部门那些所谓高瞻远瞩的执政者去决定什么能合并,什么不能合并,就正如你要皇帝去决定每个县包子的价格,最终造成的是破坏市场经济。

传统观点认为垄断企业会利用价格战打击弱小企业,等杀死这些企业后,垄断者会开始大幅度调高价格剥削消费者。然而,这在现实中是不会发生的。比如一个小镇上有个按摩店,因为价格公道,技艺娴熟,他打败了所有其他的按摩店,垄断了小镇的按摩业,让其他店全部倒闭。此时他把价格升了一倍。盈利疯狂上涨,老板睡着都能笑出声。但没过一周,一个做包子的叫乐乐耳子的男人看到了按摩行业可以如此赚钱,他立马联系了之前搞按摩的嘉琪霸霸,开了一家新的按摩店。价格只是垄断按摩店的一半。在新的按摩店占据市场1%的份额后,垄断按摩店觉得形势不对。为了杀死耳子和霸霸的店,把按摩价格降到比人工还低的亏本价格。3个月后,新按摩店倒闭。但垄断按摩店赔了3个月99%市场份额的利润,还要倒贴亏损的钱。把新店杀死后。他们接下来又调回了双倍的价格,想要弥补损失。这时,又有一家新店出现。。。。。这种以价格战消灭对手的方式最终是什么结局相信不难想到。

我们生活中实际看到的那些垄断企业非但没有抬升价格,反而拼命的降低价格。比如微信,他如此垄断,为什么不去收个月费?因为一个垄断企业想要保持他的垄断地位的唯一方法,是不断加强他和其他企业之间的护城河,通过加强管理与创新,给与消费者更物美价廉的商品。

19世纪末美国,洛克菲勒的标准石油公司在石油提炼成煤油过程中做了极大的创新。当时提炼的技术只能把60%的石油变成煤油。其他40%只能当废品倒入大海。而他却发明出了利用这40%废油的创新产品的方法,比如制作肥料,润滑剂,油漆,蜡烛,凡士林。这些副产品的销售极大降低了他的煤油生产总成本。以至于他可以给出其他所有竞争者无法匹敌的价格。1880年,他们占据了美国95%的市场,在如此垄断的情况下,在1880的前后10年间。他们的出售煤油却从1美金每加仑降了90%到10美分每加仑。这个所谓的垄断者保护了环境,降低了煤油价格,提高了人们生活水平,创造了无数的工作岗位。

你可能觉得也许是洛克菲勒是心地善良,所以降低价格,然而并不是。因为就像课本里讲的一样,资本从来是贪婪地。但洛克菲勒都垄断了为什么又要降低价格如此的讨好消费者呢。因为如果他不这么做,他就会失去他垄断的地位,永远都会有隐藏中的竞争者。当黑莓垄断手机市场的时候,搞电脑的苹果却突然杀入手机市场,夺取了半壁江上,后来安卓又一军突起,掠夺苹果份额。马化腾的QQ差点被雷军的米聊干掉,好在千钧一发之际祭出了微信。马云2014年员工大会上说,如果你们不努力,2013年将是阿里巴巴历史上最好的一年。这些所谓垄断企业对竞争者的恐惧要远远大于我们对于他们提升价格的恐惧。市场上不存在永远的垄断者,在风口浪尖的自由市场,逆水行舟,不创新不进步不去更讨好消费者,再垄断未来也就是死路一条。反垄断打破了自由经济的运作,垄断企业连定价都手足无措,价格调高,是以垄断姿态剥削消费者;降低价格,是打价格战;定个价格不高不低,不升不降,有人会去指责你这叫合谋性价格,也就是联手抬高价格。 综上。反垄断法实际是去强制保护被竞争淘汰下来的失败者。供应商提供廉价的服务本来是值得鼓励的,因为竞争使得消费者得益了,但是反垄断法的执行者,同时又去惩罚那些所谓的掠夺性定价行为或者说倾销的行为,而事实上,掠夺性定价或者倾销行为,是不能够使得厂商获得垄断地位的。日常生活中,我们见到的所谓掠夺性定价行为、倾销行为,往往不是出于垄断的意图,而是出于生产者效率的提高。说别人进行掠夺性定价、说别人倾销,往往是市场当中成本更高的生产者,指责更成功的竞争对手的一种借口。但反垄断法的执法者,往往又站到了这些在市场竞争当中失败的一方,组织他们被自由经济淘汰。

小岛经济学-1.经济是如何增长的

经济增长的原因

CS小岛上有两个渔民: 嘉琪霸霸、乐乐耳子。他们每天各只能抓一条鱼,刚好供他们各自一天的温饱。有一天嘉琪霸霸决定不苟且与此,他还想要诗和远方。他决定饿一天肚子,做一个渔网。渔网如果能做成,他每天可以捕两条鱼。这样他就可以工作一天,另一天去享受生活了。乐乐耳子摸着自己的胖肚肚笑道:“霸霸你肯定会失败的,到时我可不会管你”。霸霸不顾耳子嘲笑,竟然在第二天做出了渔网。从此霸霸一天可以补两条鱼,过上了工作一天休息一天的生活。小岛一天的总捕鱼量变成了三条,经济得到了增长。总结这个列子,CS小岛经济的长期增长靠的是霸霸的创新意识,创造出的渔网工具和他忍饥挨饿一天所得到的时间资本

借贷让经济加速发展

乐乐耳子看到霸霸一天能补两条鱼,哈喇子都滴到了地上,想要借渔网一用。但霸霸不愿意,因为渔网就只有一个,说:“你可以自己去做一个新的”。但乐乐耳子实在不想饿肚子,提议道:“不如你借我一条鱼,我到时换你两条”。霸霸同意了。乐乐用霸霸借给的一条鱼的资本做出了小岛第二个网。通过一条鱼的借贷,CS岛生产力从3条鱼变成了4条鱼。

万恶的资本主义….?

现实中,有很多仇富的人。“比尔盖茨,扎克伯格,凭什么你们好像不用干什么,却那么有钱。我拼死拼活,才这么一点钱。世界简直太不公平了!”。 “那些有钱人都自私的把钱存着自己享用,社会上那么多穷人他们却视而不见!”。其实真相是这样吗?

在霸霸拥有渔网和鱼,成为了一个小富人后,他可以干4件事。第一:每天把多出来的鱼自己吃掉,享受人生;第二:存起来。万一以后鱼少了到时可以应急。第三:把渔网借给乐乐耳子,要求乐乐耳子每天上交半条鱼给霸霸。第四,借给乐乐耳子一条鱼,让他自己去造渔网,但要求乐乐还两条鱼。

霸霸如何才能成为一个世界首富,拥有百万条鱼的渔翁呢?

一定不是把自己多出的鱼自己的存起来自己吃,这样鱼反而会越来越少。他必须把鱼或者网借出去给别人。帮助别人,也帮助自己捕鱼。然后用多的鱼再造新的网,再借给新的人。反复下去。第三第四件事乍看起来很剥削乐乐耳子。但其实,乐乐耳子的生活变的更好了,每天能吃得鱼更多了,肚子可以更大了。上面4件的哪一件事,其实都不影响他人,没有剥削任何人的财富,反而为别人创造了财富。

 想象生活中仇富的人,也许正因为有了他们,你才能过现在的生活。他的富有并不是来源于对你的剥夺,反而,你因为他的更有钱也变得更有钱了。

为什么需要投资实体黄金而不是ETF

很多人觉得黄金基金流动性好,方便买卖,也没有被盗的风险。管理费也不贵。所以都去买黄金基金。比如世界最大的黄金基金SLD,最大的白银基金SLV。或者国内支付宝里也可以购买博时黄金,华安黄金。这些基金对于短期投资很不错,ZLL借用杠杆炒纸黄金几天赚了10几万。但对于长期投资来说,其实里面存在着很大的风险。

黄金基金的运作方式

购买黄金基金不等于真的购买黄金。你买的等同于一个公司的股票。正常来说,买的人多了,股价上涨,买的人少,股价下跌。那黄金基金是如何做到跟踪黄金价格而忽略购买需求的呢?在你去购买了100股黄金基金后。他们会增发100股,去稀释掉你的买入带来的对股价的变化。所以股价不受你买入的影响。他们会用你这100股的钱去买一定数量的实体或期货黄金。过了几天,你发现黄金价格上涨,把这100股卖出。黄金基金会把他当时买入的实体黄金或者期货给卖掉。用这个卖掉的钱赎回你卖掉的那100股。那么这样,基金的股票价格就不会因为你把股票卖了而降低。而会始终跟踪着黄金价格变动。

黄金基金的危险

假设,黄金基金把所有投资人的钱都去买实体黄金。那这个模式就不存在任何问题。在经济危机来临后。他们只需要把实体黄金兑换成现金,就能保证他们的股价能准确跟踪黄金的价格。但是,黄金基金并不会把所有你买入他们股票的钱拿去买实体的黄金。他们成立的目的是为了赚钱。他们和银行一样。用的是杠杆模式的《部分准备金制度》。​你存钱进银行,银行留下10%的钱给你平时去取,剩下90%全部去借贷给别人赚钱。同样,黄金基金只用了小一部分去买黄金。​大部分的钱去用于别的商业用途。这个模式在经济正常的情况下没有问题。​但还记得2008年次贷危机有多少银行倒闭吗?

当下,各国政府疯狂借贷印钱,0利率使得整个金融体系过度的杠杆化,债务与收入的不匹配不断加大。灰犀牛其实就在不远处。当到了杠杆经济周期的最顶端。借贷,杠杆金融衍生品开始崩塌。流通的信贷会开始去杠杆化,整个经济通货紧缩。银行企业及各种经融机构开始倒闭。股票开始被大量抛售。黄金基金也不例外,他们手上只持有的少量的实体黄金,当现金出现短缺。他们没有足够黄金去兑换现金,去赎回你卖出的股票。造成他们的股价没有办法继续追踪黄金的价格。一个黄金基金持有的实体黄金越少,那么在特殊时期来临时,你所遭受的风险就越大。最后,当实体黄金突飞猛进开始往上涨后,也许你的黄金基金还在不停的往下跌。​

最后总结,不是你握在手上的黄金,那么不是你的黄金。

Invest safe.

美国通货膨胀政策的改变对美国的影响。

2020年8月27日,美联储主席鲍威尔表示“美国将以一段时间内的平均通胀率为目标,而不是设定2%的固定目标”。美国过去几年通货膨胀率都低于2%,所以这段话的真正意思是啥呢,未来几年通货膨胀的目标会超过2%。也是说,美国加速通货膨胀要开始了。

为什么美国需要提高通货膨胀率目标?

其实美联储1913年刚设立的时候,他没有每年通货膨胀目标,他的目标是保持物价的稳定,不降也不升。后来改为“啊,只要不超过2%就行”。再后来,“啊,干脆改成目标吧”。现在呢,“啊,hold不住了,要更高”。为啥HOLD不住 了呢,因为这次疫情,他们为了拯救企业,拯救经济,拯救股市,拯救布朗普连任,印了太多的钱。整个美国 不管是国家,企业,还是个人,增添了太多的债务,美国只能把利息保持为0,使得他们没办法保持不通货膨胀。为了掩饰他们的无计可施,只能改变通货膨胀政策。将来某年也许通货膨胀到了5%,那时,美联储会说。从过去十年的平均值来说,咱们还没超过2%,所以放心,没问题!

对群众的影响

通货膨胀率简单的说就是你每年现金的贬值率。

对于最底层的穷人来说,几乎无影响,因为他们本身就没钱,没房没车没存款,月光族。

对于富人来说,他们的股票,房产全部一起升值。他们更富有了,你就看看特斯拉的CEO马克思,特斯拉今年股票涨了四五倍,脸书的CEO Zurkerberg,他们身家随着股价的上升,翻了多少倍。对于富人的还有一个好处,他们的贷款变得廉价了,更容易去偿还了。

对于不投资,存了很多年现金的中产阶级,他们的现金呢,购买力一直在下降,看上去是没变,但能买到的东西越来越少。生活水平开始下降。贫富差距就是这么越拉越开,穷的人越来越穷,富的人越来越富。现在美股和美国的房价为什么突飞猛涨,也就是这个原因。

将来会怎样?

美联储表示未来5年利率都会是0 。 美国的政治家要去兑现他们在竞选时对人民的承诺,在经济萧条的情况下,就更加需要去借债印钱。不光是美国政府,0利率同样会让机构,个人去借更多的钱。美国社会欠债越来越高,导致的是一个 及其脆弱的金融体系。疫情下工人停工,生产力削弱,贸易赤字将进一步加大,美元继续走跌。黄金价格将上新高。美股继续泡沫增高。谁能拯救美国的经济?共和党的特朗普还是民主党的拜登?都不行。

Holding Side Control & North South, Taking the Back vs Single Leg

Hand Fighting & Engaging from Butterfly vs Standing Opponent

Constantly pulling hand, leg, head, fighting for the control.

if you cant hold with your arm, hold with your feet.

Holding Side Control & North South, Taking the Back vs Single Leg
In side control, when they have underhook, switch to north south(where have more control on hip). Keep the pressure on his chest, when he spins, take the back.

多吃水果蔬菜,不然死的快(多押韵)

如题,抗氧化物。比如维C,好像很重要。现在搞健身搞柔术,对吃也得多研究下了

Summary

  • The process of oxidation in the human body produces unstable chemicals called free radicals, which damage cell membranes and other structures.
  • Free radicals have been linked to a variety of diseases, including heart disease and certain cancers.
  • Antioxidants are compounds in foods that scavenge and neutralise free radicals.
  • Evidence suggests that antioxidant supplements do not work as well as the naturally occurring antioxidants in foods such as fruits and vegetables.

翻译过来,就是,人在衰老过程中,细胞会不停的氧化,氧化过程中会产生一些不稳定的化学物质”自由基“,这个名字起的也是挺叼的。这些物质会伤害到其他细胞和身体组织。

这些无拘束的自由基被发现和很多疾病有关,比如心脏病,和一些癌症。。所以总结下来就是生命老了就会给你些病让你早点死啊。。。。S***

抗氧化物就是用来搞定这些自由的基佬的。然后呢证据显示保养品来的效果不如平时我们吃的水果蔬菜的。

Oxidation can be accelerated by stress, cigarette smoking, alcohol, sunlight, pollution and other factors. 压力,抽烟,喝酒,UV,污染都会加速氧化。。也就是衰老变快。。赶紧多吃维C顶住。。

The effect of free radicals

Some conditions caused by free radicals include:

  • deterioration of the eye lens, which contributes to blindness 加速近视
  • inflammation of the joints (arthritis) 关节炎
  • damage to nerve cells in the brain, which contributes to conditions such as Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s disease 变笨
  • acceleration of the ageing process 加速变老
  • increased risk of coronary heart disease, since free radicals encourage low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol to stick to artery walls 心脏病
  • certain cancers, triggered by damaged cell DNA. 癌症

Sources of antioxidants

Plant foods are rich sources of antioxidants. They are most abundant in fruits and vegetables, as well as other foods including nuts, wholegrains and some meats, poultry and fish.

Good sources of specific antioxidants include:

  • allium sulphur compounds – leeks, onions and garlic
  • anthocyanins – eggplant, grapes and berries
  • beta-carotene – pumpkin, mangoes, apricots, carrots, spinach and parsley
  • catechins – red wine and tea
  • copper – seafood, lean meat, milk and nuts
  • cryptoxanthins – red capsicum, pumpkin and mangoes
  • flavonoids – tea, green tea, citrus fruits, red wine, onion and apples
  • indoles – cruciferous vegetables such as broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower
  • isoflavonoids – soybeans, tofu, lentils, peas and milk
  • lignans – sesame seeds, bran, whole grains and vegetables
  • lutein – green, leafy vegetables like spinach, and corn
  • lycopene – tomatoes, pink grapefruit and watermelon
  • manganese – seafood, lean meat, milk and nuts
  • polyphenols – thyme and oregano
  • selenium – seafood, offal, lean meat and whole grains
  • vitamin A – liver, sweet potatoes, carrots, milk, and egg yolks
  • vitamin C – oranges, blackcurrants, kiwifruit, mangoes, broccoli, spinach, capsicum and strawberries
  • vitamin E – vegetable oils (such as wheatgerm oil), avocados, nuts, seeds and whole grains
  • zinc – seafood, lean meat, milk and nuts
  • zoochemicals – red meat, offal and fish. Also derived from the plants that animals eat.

记录生活

今天的柔术实战比上周六感觉体力好多了。。上周六的简直天旋地转。。拉了老王和JASON一起去,一定要想办法说服他们一直去。。

SIDE CONTROL ESCAPE还是不行,稍微会防了点,知道两手要CONNECT,还继续学YOUTUBE吧

 

 

睡成外星人的阿呆

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